Episode Ten: Game Theory

Fiji, shit. I'm still only in Fiji. Every time I think I'm going to wake up back on Exile. When I was back at camp after my first trip, it was worse. I'd wake up and there'd be nothing...I hardly said a word to my tribe, until I said yes to a merge. When I was here I wanted to be there. When I was there, all I could think of was getting my hands on the Idol. I've been here a week now. Waiting for Tribal Council, getting softer. Every minute I stay on the Jury I get weaker. And every minute Jeff squats in the bush he gets stronger. Each time I look around, the alliances squeeze in a little tighter.

Everyone gets everything he wants. I wanted an Immunity Challenge, and for my sins they gave me one. Brought it up to me like margaritas on a 70-foot yacht.*

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In the immediate aftermath of last week's confused Tribal Council, several members of Bula Bula had explaining to do. Mookie somehow managed to convince Alex that his aberrant vote for Stacy was a consequence of 'miscommunication', while Dreamz had a slightly harder time justifying his last minute change of mind. The following day, Earl warily accepted Boo's entreaty to become the fifth member of his alliance, but confessed that he is trusting no one in it completely, bar Yau Man and Cassandra.

Cassandra dominated at the Reward Challenge, displaying an intuitive understanding of how her tribemates think by guessing the majority answers in a series of revealing questions. She earned Mookie's potential enmity when she sent him packing to Exile Island, and may have stepped on more toes back at Bula Bula, when she had to pick only three other people to share in her reward; an overnight cruise, booze 'n' snooze aboard a luxury yacht. Cassandra and Yau Man may lack the charm and tactfulness of their leader Earl, but they did what they could to ensure the future allegiance of Boo- whose dedication to the 'Syndicate' now seems as staunch as that of a puppy to its master- and Dreamz, who is still rather reluctant, at this crucial point, to pick a side.

Earl wasn't slow to pick up on this back at camp, especially when he stumbled upon Dreamz and Alex deep in vote-related conversation at the water hole. In the ensuing confrontation, mediated by Cassandra, Dreamz threw a curveball by revealing that Mookie has the (other) hidden Immunity Idol, and that both Alex and Edgardo know about it. A visibly flustered Earl- who, incidentally, won't be winning an Academy Award any time soon- had to let Dreamz off the hook for sharing this juicy morsel, though the revelation seemed more an act of desperation on Dreamz's part than anything else. As Yau put it, this new information means they really have to "rethink how this will play out."

As predicted, Yau Man triumphed in the endurance-based Immunity Challenge, though a surprisingly nimble Boo put up a good fight. The scheming came thick and fast following the Challenge: Earl was initially targeted by the Four Horsemen, while a noncommittal Stacy forced them to bring their Idol into play ahead of time; Dreamz, having convinced his fellow chevaliers that Alex's head was on the chopping block, went behind their backs and told Earl & Co. that Alex now planned on using the Idol to save himself at Tribal. The vote changed to Mookie for a while, but when Stacy brought up the possibility of a double-bluff by Dreamz, she and the other four decided to vote for Edgardo, without informing Dreamz.

A last minute change of mind by the Four Horsemen did nothing to alter the outcome of the vote at Tribal Council; Alex unnecessarily played the hidden idol, and watched in horror as The Syndicate's vote swung to the unsuspecting Edgardo. Dreamz's sole vote for Mookie will not go unnoticed by the rapidly dwindling Horsemen either. Will this mean their end is rather nigh?

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Idol Hands: Alex may have been a bit too ready to make excuses for Mookie, possibly so he wouldn't have to aknowledge the frangible (it's a word) nature of their alliance, but at least he had the foresight to break Mookie's grip on the recently discovered Ravu Idol. It really was time that Mookie was called out on this point; Alex basically delivered an ultimatum: you can have the Idol, or this alliance, but not both. Not that Mookie could've walked away with the little turtle that easily, but at least the terms of the arrangement were out in the open. Alex suggested they rotate possession of the Idol daily between the four Horsemen, to prove they trust one another- to "seal the final four in blood", as he rather dramatically put it. This would be a cumbersome idea in practise, especially considering the conspicuous nature of the Idol handover witnessed later in the episode; it was more a test of Mookie's loyalty, seeing what he was prepared to give up for the greater good of the alliance.

Mookie had to bear the brunt of all this on account of Dreamz's last minute decision to vote for Michelle instead of Stacy, and he was rightfully pissed off about that. Dreamz's reason for voting for Michelle seemed rather weak: she had said at Tribal that she didn't really know him and didn't know if she could trust him, which had made him realise the same things about her. That's all well and good, but it's not as if he knew Stacy any better, except that she had been a bit of a bee with an itch in the past, and her presence in Alex's alliance threatened his own future in the game. Such capricious behaviour should be a red flag for Mookie: Dreamz can't be trusted.

With Caissa: Speaking of red flags, or at least red hats, Boo has found a cosy little spot for himself in Earl's 'Syndicate', now that Michelle is gone and Earl needs to bulk up his numbers. With both 'wild card' Dreamz and 'manipulative' Mookie still not being trusted, Boo seems to have slipped comfortably into third place in Earl's little chess game, behind Yau Man and Cassandra, a position that last week would have been unimaginable.

Even more surprising was Stacy's nonchalant shift into the Syndicate late in the episode; she shrugged off her incipient alliance with Alex with barely a word, and insinuated herself into proceedings at the opposing faction with admirable assertiveness. The switch was prompted by Yau Man, but Stacy could obviously see the writing was on the wall for the Horsemen, and that it would be in her best interests to jump stable. With his lieutenant freely recruiting, Earl has his work cut out to keep all his pieces in check. But as he said, poised theatrically on a craggy hilltop as the camera wheeled overhead, "I like playing this game. And I am still here."

It's A Very Ancient Saying: The 'Getting To Know You' challenge returned this season, bringing with it little ego boosts for some (Yau, Earl) and kicks in the teeth, or sand in the eye, for others (Stacy, Boo, Stacy). It's always interesting to watch what names recur in this kind of game, and try to figure out if people are simply choosing the answer they themselves gave, or if they're genuinely trying to guess what the majority of the tribe wrote down. And of course the order and force with which players are dispatched can reveal vital nuggets of information to the attentive viewer. Let's take a look at some of the questions, and the feather-ruffling responses.

QUESTION 1: Who would you trust with your life?
ANSWER: EARL

No surprise here that Earl was the most popular answer, or that Yau Man, Cassandra and Boo guessed it correctly. Earl probably voted for himself too, but couldn't really get away with revealing that in front of everyone. Mookie said Alex, and Alex, completely out of touch it seems, said Dreamz! A bad start for Stacy anyway, who took three consecutive hits, and became the first to leave the challenge. Ouch!

QUESTION 2: Who are you least likely to invite to a family dinner?
ANSWER: BOO

Correct answers from Cassandra, Mookie, Dreamz and Alex, and a double blow for poor Boo, who not only got snubbed at the dinner party, but also took three hits and joined Stacy on the loser's bench.

QUESTION 3: Who most has a sense of entitlement?
ANSWER: ALEX

Only Cassandra and Mookie guessed correctly on this one, Mookie at least recognising that Alex may come across a tad cocky, if not actually thinking it himself. Similarly, Alex assumed the same of Mookie. Oddly, it wasn't possible to see whose name Earl chose.

QUESTION 4: Who would you most like to be stranded on an island with?
ANSWER: YAU MAN

Yau Boi finally got the recognition he deserves, and everybody except Alex guessed correctly on this one, resulting in a lot of damage in the subsequent tower-smashing spree. Earl and Mookie exchanged blows, and Edgardo's follow-up took Earl out of the game. Seemingly in retribution, Yau Man (who shared none of Earl's reticence in volunteering his own name) took Edgardo down a peg; and rather tellingly, Dreamz delivered the final blow to Alex, taking him out of the game.

QUESTION 5: Who do you not want to see again, after the game?
ANSWER: STACY!

Everybody left in the game got this one right; unfortunately we never got to see whose name Stacy would have guessed. Would she have had the insight- or temerity- to suggest herself? Lots more damage done this round, anyway: Yau and Cassandra exchanging blows with Dreamz and Mookie, respectively, resulting in the latter's expulsion from the game.

QUESTION 6: Who smells the worst?
ANSWER: DREAMZ

Surprisingly, Cassandra took this opportunity to wipe Yau Man out of the game, rather than attacking Edgardo. That must've...ahem...put his nose out of joint.

QUESTION 7: Who mistakenly believes they are in control of this game?
ANSWER: ALEX

It was interesting that the two incorrect answers were Boo and Stacy, ostensibly the two players with the least control in the game at this point. We know that Boo has convinced himself that he is merely biding his time until he can reclaim leadership, but surely it's obvious that Stacy knows she's bottom of the totem pole right now? Cassandra dispenses with Edgardo; she and Dreamz each have two towers remaining at this point.

QUESTION 8: Who has wasted this great opportunity?
ANSWER: STACY

A slightly ambiguous question- how does one qualify 'waste', and precisely what 'opportunity' is being referred to?- but when in doubt, vote Stacy! Cassandra demolishes Dreamz's penultimate tower, and is poised to win the Challenge in the next round.

QUESTION 9: Athletically, who has surprised you the most?
ANSWER: YAU MAN

Again, no surprise that the majority vote on this one went to 'Demolition' Man, Immunity Challenge champion of the past several episodes. Dreamz somewhat sycophantically nominated Cassandra for the honour, though his flattery can't have hurt later on, when Cassandra had to choose her three yacht buddies. She thankfully didn't take Edgardo up on his offer/threat: the only thing licking Cassandra's feet was the tide as she waded out to the boat.

Bad Dreamz: Cass chose Dreamz straight off the bat, then Boo, and finally Yau Man, becasue he "works so hard and [...] needed a break." Dreamz and Boo were chosen because Cassandra still wasn't sure where she stood with them, and wanted an opportunity to work them over and make sure that they were on her side; to 'brainwash' them, as Yau Man put it. Earl looked disappointed when he wasn't chosen, although having to leave the gentle art of persuasion to his deputies was probably a major part of that. In any case, Dreamz seemed to respond more to the companionship and fun he found on board than to any talk of being 'part of the Syndicate'. He made no effort to hide the fact that he's still in two minds over which faction he should allign himself with, and Cassandra wasn't slow in noticing it: "I think Dreamz is playing both sides right now, because I can't sense in his eyes one hundred percent commitment to our alliance."

This doesn't seem like a conscious decision on Dreamz's part- a clever ploy to play both sides against each other- but rather the result of the emotional connections he has to members of both parties. He said, "My heart's tellin' me go with Cassandra...it's like I'm being tugged in every direction- except my own." It's as if he wants to be friends with everyone- to be liked by everyone- but that's not possible in a game like Survivor. There comes a point where you have to decide what's more important to you, your relationships with your tribemates, or progressing in the game. If Dreamz takes too long making that decision, he'll end up on the jury bench sooner than he'd like.

What's So Great About The Waterhole?: It's unclear how much Earl heard of the lengthy conversation between Dreamz and Alex the next day. He probably missed the comparison of Mookie and the Idol to Gollum and The One Ring, but the gist of the conversation, and its significance, was obvious even without hearing Dreamz warn Alex that his name was going to come up at Tribal. This may have all been part of Dreamz's plan to flush out the Horsemen's idol, but without telling anyone about it, it's no wonder Earl was doubtful of his motivations. The subsequent revelation to Earl, Cassandra and Yau, that Mookie has the no-longer-hidden Ravu idol, was another strange and upsetting bombshell for Earl, coming out of the blue as it did. Granted it proved to be vital and beneficial intelligence for the Syndicate in the end, but it raises serious questions about the reliability of Dreamz as a carrier of information.

Earl summed it up perfectly: "Dreamz [...] is tryin' to do a lot of strategy on his own, and yes, it could be effective, but if you don't tell people what you're doing, [they're] not gonna trust [you]. Especially someone that has all these little antics and little things about them that I still question anyway."

And we got to witness Earl's admirable acting skills as he pretended to have never seen one of the hidden Idols before. "What's it look like?...It's a turtle?...Note my wide eyes and high-pitched, incredulous voice. Note them."

No Hips, No Back, No Butt: The Immunity Challenge itself wasn't particularly memorable, but the behaviour of some of the participants was noteworthy for its eccentricity. At the twenty-two minute mark, Edgardo began tapping a little tune on the wood of his enclosure. Mookie, who up until that point had looked 'like a fixed piece of art', shot him a glance as if trying to unscramble some obscure code in the tattoo. Boo then joined the ensemble, shouting "MEKE!" and "YOO-DOO!", and peering out from under his hat like a budgie. Soon after, Edgardo fell from his perch, the first casualty of a challenge that didn't reward his peculiar toe-tapping technique.

Incidentally, if anyone knows why Boo is promoting the fluid ounce unit of volume on his hat, do share.

Smokin' Aces & Falling Faces: Seemingly Mookie did a lot of soul-searching during his time on Exile Island. Not only did he come back with a scheme to demolish Cassandra by systematically wiping out her allies, and deduce that Earl probably has the other hidden Idol, but he also finally committed himself to furthering the Four Horsemen's cause above his own: "I will not be faltered [sic], I will not be railroaded...this is the order we vote: Earl, Yau Man, Boo. It's done."

Stacy shared none of his forthrightness: rather than lying to Alex, or indeed telling him the truth, she chose to remain silent about her change of heart (and allegiance), even under direct questioning. Apparently she thought Alex would, y'know, get the message, if she just stared at him for long enough. Alex is quite bad at reading people, especially for a lawyer, or maybe he's just too trusting of them, and he had to be convinced by Edgardo that Stacy was 'not in, dude.' It was also Edgardo that finally persuaded Mookie to hand over the Idol, something he may have regretted, since the vote probably would've stayed centred on Alex had the rather blatant exchange never occured.

Alex and Edgardo displayed such confidence in their plan, and such glee at it's imminent execution: "This is an all or nothing move, but if it works out it'll probably be one of the best moves ever!" "This is brilliant!" Unfortunately for them, Stacy was thinking two or three steps beyond that, and Earl had the resources to effect some strong countermeasures, even taking the precaution of keeping Dreamz ignorant of the final decision. The plan played out flawlessly at Tribal Council, in all its horrifying, cringe-inducing glory. Rocky, on the jury, appreciated it at least, once he had figured out what was going on.

Dreamz's prophetic observation at Tribal is an appropriate way to wrap up coverage of what some have rather hyperbolically called the "best Survivor episode EVER in the history of Survivor!", to wit "This vote is going to determine everything in the game; it's going to seperate the snakes from the rats, right here."

Which category he himself falls into remains to be seen.

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Quote of the Week: Not a particularly remarkable quote from Jeff, but striking for the response it elicited from Alex. Jeff opined, "Alex played the hidden Immunity Idol tonight; turns out you didn't need it," and Alex glowered back as if to say, "Gee, thanks, Jeff, I hadn't noticed that."

Also, Mookie deserves a mention for his misplaced faith in the power of his allies. "Call it revenge, but I'm gunning for her (Cassandra). I just have to get in touch with the Four Horsemen, and it's done."

He does realise he's one of them, doesn't he?

Predictions for Next Week: The recently played Idol is actually re-hidden inside Yau Man's bag; events conspire to knock Dreamz from his fence; and Alex comes up with a 'foolproof' plan to win the game and solve that pesky global warming problem.

* Introduction by John Milius and Francis Coppola. Kinda.